Watch any news channel and you cannot be blamed for thinking that Ben Affleck’s “Armamgeddon” is nigh or that six years later, Will Smith’s “2012” is about to occur.
On many platforms, the outlook of the world is so glooomy that one is led to think that human beings are inherently bad and this evil is going to destroy the planet. Some even go to the extent of accusing Elon Musk and all contemporaries who are on the race to Mars, that they want to extend extend human evil across the universe.
The question is, is the world getting better or is it getting worse? Are we better off than our Stone Age ancestors?
One way to answer these questions is to look at the world challenges and determine whether they are getting worse or not.
According to the World Economic Forum, a “global risk” is defined as an uncertain event or condition that, if it occurs, can cause significant negative impact for several countries or industries within the next 10 years. For the pourpose of this post, we will stick to this definition.
Economic Risks
Asset bubbles in a major economy
Unsustainably overpriced assets such as commodities, housing, shares, etc. in a major economy or region
Deflation in a major economy
Prolonged near-zero inflation or deflation in a major economy or region
Failure of a major financial mechanism or institution
Collapse of a financial institution and/or malfunctioning of a financial system that impacts the global economy
Failure/shortfall of criticalinfrastructure
Failure to adequately invest in, upgrade and/or secure infrastructure networks (e.g. energy, transportation and communications), leading to pressure or a breakdown with system-wide implications.
Fiscal crises in key economies
Excessive debt burdens that generate sovereign debt crises and/or liquidity crises
High structural unemployment or underemployment
A sustained high level of unemployment or underutilization of the productive capacity of the employed population
Illicit trade (e.g. illicit financial flows, tax evasion, human trafficking, organized crime, etc.)
Large-scale activities outside the legal framework such as illicit financial flows, tax evasion, human trafficking, counterfeiting and/or organized crime that undermine social interactions, regional or international collaboration, and global growth
Severe energy price shock(increase or decrease)
Significant energy price increases or decreases that place further economic pressures on highly energy-dependent industries and consumers
Unmanageable inflation
Unmanageable increases in the general price levels of goods and services in key economies
Environmental Risks
Extreme weather events (e.g. floods, storms, etc.)
Major property, infrastructure and/or environmental damage as well as loss of human life caused by extreme weather events
Failure of climate-change mitigation and adaptation
The failure of governments and businesses to enforce or enact effective measures to mitigate climate change, protect populations and help businesses impacted by climate change to adapt
Major biodiversity loss and ecosystem collapse (terrestrial or marine)
Irreversible consequences for the environment, resulting in severely depleted resources for humankind as well as industries
Major natural disasters (e.g. earthquake, tsunami, volcanic eruption, geomagnetic storms)
Major property, infrastructure and/or environmental damage as well as loss of human life caused by geophysical disasters such as earthquakes, volcanic activity, landslides, tsunamis, or geomagnetic storms
Man-made environmentaldamage and disasters (e.g. oil spills, radioactive contamination, etc.)
Failure to prevent major man-made damage and disasters, including environmental crime, causing harm to human lives and health, infrastructure, property, economic activity and the environment.
Geopolitical Risks
Failure of national governance (e.g. failure of rule of law, corruption, political deadlock, etc.)
Inability to govern a nation of geopolitical importance as a result of weak rule of law, corruption or political deadlock.
Failure of regional or global governance
Inability of regional or global institutions to resolve issues of economic, geopolitical or environmental importance
Interstate conflict with regional consequences
A bilateral or multilateral dispute between states that escalates into economic (e.g. trade/currency wars, resource nationalization), military, cyber, societal or other conflict.
Large-scale terrorist attacks
Individuals or non-state groups with political or religious goals that successfully inflict large-scale human or material damage.
State collapse or crisis (e.g. civil conflict, military coup, failed states, etc.)
State collapse of geopolitical importance due to internal violence, regional or global instability, military coup, civil conflict, failed states, etc.
Weapons of mass destruction
The deployment of nuclear, chemical, biological and radiological technologies and materials, creating international crises and potential for significant destruction
Societal Risks
Failure of urban planning
Poorly planned cities, urban sprawl and associated infrastructure that create social, environmental and health challenges
Food crises
Inadequate, unaffordable, or unreliable access to appropriate quantities and quality of food and nutrition on a major scale
Large-scale involuntary migration
Large-scale involuntary migration induced by conflict, disasters, environmental or economic reasons
Profound social instability
Major social movements or protests (e.g. street riots, social unrest, etc.) that disrupt political or social stability, negatively impacting populations and economic activity.
Rapid and massive spread of infectious diseases
Bacteria, viruses, parasites or fungi that cause uncontrolled spread of infectious diseases (for instance as a result of resistance to antibiotics, antivirals and other treatments) leading to widespread fatalities and economic disruption.
Water crises
A significant decline in the available quality and quantity of fresh water, resulting in harmful effects on human health and/or economic activity.
Technological Risks
Adverse consequences of technological advances
Intended or unintended adverse consequences of technological advances such as artificial intelligence, geo-engineering and synthetic biology causing human, environmental and economic damage
Breakdown of critical information infrastructure and networks (Critical information infrastructure breakdown)
Cyber dependency that increases vulnerability to outage of critical information infrastructure (e.g. internet, satellites, etc.) and networks, causing widespread disruption
Large-scale cyberattacks
Large-scale cyberattacks or malware causing large economic damages, geopolitical tensions or widespread loss of trust in the internet
Massive incident of data fraud/theft
Wrongful exploitation of private or official data that takes place on an unprecedented scale
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